Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 19.850510 21.512568 23.302488 25.382613 27.745184 30.359010 33.488813
2025-09-14 17.163111 19.441503 22.063297 25.339902 29.378023 34.264163 40.739291
2025-09-21 15.193333 17.782317 20.914087 25.057659 30.517557 37.653557 48.027639
2025-09-28 14.269573 17.188433 20.880427 26.029450 33.264237 43.481217 59.870714
2025-10-05 13.137191 16.163411 20.121005 25.868425 34.366612 47.161741 69.529847
2025-10-12 12.252986 15.348976 19.515261 25.784402 35.490359 51.005368 80.517599
2025-10-19 11.647021 14.836483 19.245688 26.110676 37.232594 56.131553 95.493017
2025-10-26 10.991403 14.189583 18.707585 25.941295 38.115083 59.925755 109.259716
2025-11-02 10.393196 13.571903 18.147177 25.654418 38.726487 63.317192 123.552515
2025-11-09 9.938039 13.123445 17.793401 25.645595 39.800136 67.819798 142.718401
2025-11-16 9.476007 12.630923 17.328305 25.393047 40.374831 71.412886 161.452583
2025-11-23 9.076494 12.204681 16.930526 25.206734 41.035511 75.343059 183.709487
2025-11-30 8.693004 11.787106 16.527238 24.990032 41.647650 79.441061 210.139123
2025-12-07 8.358938 11.426706 16.191198 24.861283 42.427380 84.207911 243.673672
2025-12-14 8.017409 11.035664 15.778172 24.551070 42.780043 88.009287 277.517822
2025-12-21 7.932813 11.041355 16.018913 25.478323 45.982701 100.715034 373.598097
2025-12-28 7.661149 10.733277 15.707867 25.315709 46.686810 106.427367 442.030345
2026-01-04 7.422992 10.466785 15.450245 25.231570 47.564430 113.057544 533.315290
2026-01-11 7.265814 10.323516 15.395946 25.546500 49.473487 124.001470 698.186032
2026-01-18 7.044843 10.064229 15.120570 25.381943 50.144921 130.884668 855.303050
2026-01-25 6.821332 9.790788 14.804254 25.103827 50.479349 136.706524 1035.439252
2026-02-01 6.650700 9.598363 14.622841 25.095195 51.543670 146.089808 1353.039142
2026-02-08 6.457217 9.359222 14.343167 24.850465 51.919358 152.801425 1703.369259